A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
